The Global Chessboard: Ukraine, Saudi Arms Deals, and a "Phony War" in Venezuela

Renowned Geopolitical Expert Irina Tsukerman Decodes the Hidden Connections Between This Week's Biggest Crises

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_IcezAsKJc

Hey everyone,

I just had one of those conversations that reminds me why I love diving into global politics. We often see crises in Ukraine, Gaza, and Venezuela as separate fires. But sitting down with Irina Tsukerman reminded me they're all connected—and the connections might surprise you.

When Irina and I spoke for our latest episode, she revealed the strategic calculations and dangerous miscalculations happening behind today's biggest headlines. Here’s what stood out to me from our conversation.

Key Takeaways from Our Discussion

• Ukraine's "Peace" Plan is a Political Trap

The 28-point plan negotiated without Ukraine appears designed to pressure Zelensky rather than achieve peace.

• Gaza Reconstruction Can't Work Yet

Any rebuilding without first disarming Hamas is doomed to fail.

• Saudi Arabia's F-35 Deal Has Hidden Motives

This massive arms deal reflects regional competition with Qatar as much as genuine defense needs.

• Venezuela is a "Phony War"

The military talk seems more about leverage than actual regime change.

• Pakistan's Monsters Are Turning

The terrorist groups Pakistan once fostered are now creating blowback that threatens regional stability.

One moment from our conversation particularly stuck with me. Irina noted:

"The leaked 28-point peace plan... underscores that the threat is maybe as much more political than it's actually military... It was an effort to send out a message that Trump can still be useful to put pressure on Ukraine."

Irina has a remarkable ability to see through the noise and explain what's really driving these global power shifts.

Understanding the Bigger Picture

If you want to understand the game behind the game, watch our full conversation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_IcezAsKJc

Let me know what you think,

Ajay

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Full Conversation Transcript (Unedited — Shared Exactly as It Happened)

Introduction

(00:08) [Music] [Music] Welcome to this episode of the world according to Irina Tsukerman. Our very special series on global politics on the KJ masterclass live. Irina Tsukerman is a US-based national security and human rights lawyer, as well as a renowned geopolitical analyst.

(00:39) Her writings and commentary have appeared in diverse US and international media and have been translated into over a dozen languages. Every fortnight in the world according to Irina Tsukerman, we traverse the geopolitical landscape and delve into pressing international issues, gaining insight from Irina's expert perspective. Welcome to the show once again. Aya, thank you. Always glad to be here. You're welcome.

Current Events and Ukraine

(01:04) Several big topics again today, Irina. But first, let's take up this Ukraine issue. There’s a lot of discussion around a new peace formula—a 28-point formula about Ukraine. What’s going on in that part of the world? Is it getting worse or better?

(01:26) Both, in some ways. It’s funny; the news tends to focus on one angle or the other. But at the same time, everything is happening simultaneously. Much will depend on the implementation, execution, and leadership.

(02:22) Sorry, wait. I actually don't think I can hear you. Can you hear me? Yes, I can. I can hear you. I didn’t know. Can you just repeat the last part? Because I feel like it froze and cut out.

(02:39) Okay. The first part is the corruption scandal in Ukraine. There are a lot of question marks around the government itself, the president, and many other things. Along with this, a new 28-point formula seems to be coming up between Russia, Ukraine, and the US. But it does not involve Ukraine. Only Ukraine will be impacted by it. How do you see this whole thing panning out?

(03:00) So, there are two things going on simultaneously. On one hand, the fact that at such a high level, there’s so much graft related to energy companies and insiders close to the president raises public outrage. It raises outrage among investors and backers. At the same time, it’s a sign of accountability.

(04:01) Let’s face it, ten years ago, all of these people would have not only remained in place but would have continued making money and being corrupt at even higher levels. Essentially, based on what I understand, the level of corruption and the money being made from these sensitive situations has been cut by half from previous years. It’s still not nearly enough. It’s still horrifying and disappointing.

(04:30) It shows how difficult it is to root out corruption once it becomes part of your political culture. It becomes entrenched in the system. If you're not corrupt, you literally cannot function. You can't get anything done or make money.

(05:20) Of course, many in former Soviet countries go into politics specifically to make money rather than using their wealth for public good. It’s particularly tragic that this reckoning is coming during a devastating war. You’d think that public conscience would focus on winning the war, but I’m not sure that these corrupt officials even know how to act differently.

(06:27) The 28-point peace plan that was leaked recently underscores that the threat is more political than military. Russia cannot make serious progress without political backing from the international community, especially the US.

(06:51) Sure, they’re making incremental territorial gains while Ukraine suffers from personnel shortages. However, the progress is minimal compared to the losses Russia is suffering. Economically, the US sanctions on some of its largest companies are still making an impact.

(07:26) Ukraine's strikes on energy and military infrastructure inside Russia are also setting the war pace back substantially. What does that mean? Russia needed some sort of a political trick to divert attention from its own dismal situation and gain leverage over Ukraine, even if only temporarily.

(07:58) The plan seems more like a publicity stunt to cause the US to put pressure on Ukraine than a serious effort to stop Ukraine. Russia understands that most of Europe and the US are too invested to completely abandon the situation, especially as Russia continues expanding its threat to Western countries with various acts of sabotage.

(08:26) The remarkably effective sabotage of the railway in Poland, the worst such attack since World War II, and the continued attacks on underwater sea cables in Europe are examples of this. These incidents add up and are not winning Russia any popularity in many governing factions.

(09:18) Russia needed something to even out the playing field from a political perception perspective, especially as the Republican view of Ukraine and Zelensky was starting to shift. Their appeal was an audience of one: Donald Trump. It was not an effort to shift public opinion but to send a message that Trump can still be useful to pressure Ukraine.

(09:52) It used Vitkov, who has business interests in Russia and was willing to do anything his friends asked him, to leak a plan that was bound to be rejected by Ukraine. It also insinuated to the naive Trump officials that leveraging Ukraine with the threat of pulling intel and weapons would back Ukraine into a corner.

(10:33) Clearly, they were wrong. First of all, Ukraine cannot afford to fulfill conditions that include cutting out a large chunk of its army, which is already suffering from personnel shortages. It cannot give up weapons or admit defeat to please Trump or Putin.

(10:57) Quite frankly, Ukraine is not nearly as dependent on the US for intelligence or weaponry as it was at the beginning of the war. The leverage is not what these people thought it was.

(11:30) The idea that Ukraine and Russia would make peace by the end of the week, which some White House officials were pushing, was absurd on its face. However, even the threats of sanctions and lack of support can be damaging psychologically, not only for Ukraine but also embolden pro-Russian political networks elsewhere.

(12:01) This is an information attack more than a serious effort to end Ukraine's aspirations for independence in any meaningful way. It was designed to cause disruptions and help desperate Russian networks.

Middle East Crisis

(12:37) Moving on from one crisis to another, the Middle East crisis looks like President Trump and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are considering a UN resolution regarding Palestinian statehood. Does it look like peace will finally prevail? Will there be reconstruction in Gaza without disarming Hamas?

(13:01) The fact that the UN Security Council accepted this plan without serious changes indicates a level of international support. Many parties find this current structure useful for various purposes, granting it some level of international legitimacy.

(13:58) However, in terms of actual implementation, this is extremely dubious. Trump seems to be applying the same outdated formula to the Russia-Ukraine process. Essentially, he’s giving up on disarming Hamas and claims he will move directly to reconstruction in areas currently under Israel's control.

(14:30) The moment Israel withdraws, if Hamas remains in power, they will likely consolidate control over the territory, leading to the destruction of infrastructure and wasted efforts.

(15:06) Hamas is not just growing its presence in Gaza; they are also expanding in the West Bank, where Iran continues to supply them with weapons. Recently, Europe dismantled Hamas cells in Germany and Austria, which should come as no surprise to anyone following these events.

(15:34) The plan in theory is acceptable to many stakeholders in the region. However, there is no way to enforce it. There are too many unresolved issues that will not be easy to resolve.

Saudi Arabia's F-35 Deal

(16:01) Now, let’s discuss MBS's visit to Washington and the Saudi investment forum. Trump is considering the sale of 48 F-35s to Riyadh. What was this visit about, and will it wean Saudi Arabia away from Russia?

(16:35) Interestingly, the word "Russia" never appeared in any headlines concerning this, yet it was part of the picture. The immediate cause for this visit was Qatar getting a huge defense deal and being elevated to major non-NATO status, which the Saudis felt threatened by.

(17:01) The initial idea of pushing for a full defense treaty with the US is not new. After Qatar got this deal, it became a priority in Riyadh. Trump has been in talks with the Saudis regarding the F-35s and a civilian nuclear program.

(17:30) On paper, Saudi Arabia came away with a lot in exchange for relatively little. They got approval for AI chips and some sort of security commitment from the US, but it’s unclear whether that commitment is real.

(18:01) Trump agreed to sell 48 F-35s, which indicates his motivation to include Saudi Arabia in the F-35 program. However, the reality is much more complicated. Congress is likely to weigh Israel's concerns about losing its qualitative edge.

(18:30) Many believe that Saudi Arabia is not a real threat to Israel. However, you don’t buy that many planes unless you want to project power. This is related to Iran and Qatar, but also given that Iran has normalized relations with Saudi Arabia, these relations are stable for now.

(19:01) Congress is likely to review this sale vigorously. They may place restrictions and exercise tight oversight over its use by the Saudis. Meanwhile, Qatar is trying to buy F-35s from the US as well.

(19:30) The Saudis did not follow the same path. Instead of trying to build public acceptance through incremental steps, they went for the jugular right away. How that will work out remains to be seen.

Venezuela's Situation

(20:01) Now let’s move on to Venezuela, where another conflict seems to be opening with Trump considering military options. What has Venezuela done? What does Trump want from Venezuela?

(20:30) Venezuela has become a dangerous actor in the Western Hemisphere. It is backed by Iran, Russia, and China, all of whom are adversarial to the US. They have been weaponizing cartels to smuggle deadly drugs into the US.

(21:01) There is an active opposition movement led by Maria Machado, who won the Nobel Peace Prize this year. If the regime were to fall, there would be a viable opposition that could peacefully transition and end the troubles.

(21:30) However, I’m not sure that Trump is seriously committed to this process. He may just be using military options as a form of deterrence. His recent statements to Congress indicated that the US does not yet have a legal justification for airstrikes.

(22:01) The official cause for escalation has been combating fentanyl smuggling by boats. However, the administration has not presented conclusive evidence that all these boats were drug smugglers.

(22:30) The argument that drug smuggling presents the same level of risk as terrorism has not been legally tested yet. Trump has designated many cartels as terrorist organizations, but there hasn’t been a legal precedent for acting against them in this way.

(23:01) This war on drugs or terrorism promises to be a long one. Displacing Maduro's regime alone may not suffice. The cartels could assassinate the next leader or hijack the policy.

Regional Instability

(23:30) Now, let’s move on to my part of the world. Pakistan has opened an investigation into the Islamabad terror attack and accused India. Meanwhile, the Afghan Taliban has ended trade relations with Pakistan. What does it all look like?

(24:01) It seems the terrorist attack in New Delhi may have been a retaliation for India's perceived role in Islamabad. However, I doubt Indian security services would attack civilian targets in Islamabad just to create problems.

(24:30) It’s likely that the Taliban or another terrorist organization was responsible. Pakistan is losing control of the very organizations it fostered, and they are now operating independently.

(25:01) Despite growing instability in Pakistan, it seems Trump is betting on its military. He thinks he can turn Pakistan back into an asset of the US. However, I’m skeptical that he can fully control this relationship.

(25:30) The Taliban feels it has leverage to push for more aggressive demands. A weakened Pakistan, semi-controlled by terrorist groups, is a dangerous turn of events. These non-state actors will not respect borders or listen to commands.

(26:01) They will prioritize expansion and causing problems, which could lead to even greater instability in the region.

Conclusion

(26:30) Amidst all these developments, something good is happening. The US has exempted some goods from reciprocal tariffs in the India-US trade deal. However, I don’t see major progress on an overall framework.

(27:01) Trump seems to be adopting a tactical approach, temporarily taxing some products and then removing tariffs to raise money for his purposes. This is a long-term game he’s playing.

(27:30) Unfortunately, this maneuvering benefits him more than it benefits the American people or India. I don’t expect this style of operation to end anytime soon.

(28:01) With this, it’s a wrap on this very special edition of the world according to Irina Tsukerman on the KJ Masterclass Live. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you.

(28:45) [Music]