The Global Chessboard: Ukraine, Saudi Arms Deals, and a "Phony War" in Venezuela

Renowned geopolitical expert Irina Tsukerman decodes the hidden connections between this week's biggest crises.

Hey everyone,

I just had one of those conversations that reminds me why I love diving into global politics. We often see crises in Ukraine, Gaza, and Venezuela as separate fires, but sitting down with Irina Tsukerman reminded me they're all connected - and the connections might surprise you.

When Irina and I spoke for our latest episode, she revealed the strategic calculations and dangerous miscalculations happening behind today's biggest headlines. Here's what stood out to me from our conversation.

What stood out to me:

• Ukraine's "Peace" Plan is a Political Trap - The 28-point plan negotiated without Ukraine appears designed to pressure Zelensky rather than achieve peace.

  
  

• Gaza Reconstruction Can't Work Yet - Any rebuilding without first disarming Hamas is doomed to fail.

  
  

• Saudi Arabia's F-35 Deal Has Hidden Motives - This massive arms deal reflects regional competition with Qatar as much as genuine defense needs.

  
  

• Venezuela is a "Phony War" - The military talk seems more about leverage than actual regime change.

  
  

• Pakistan's Monsters Are Turning - The terrorist groups Pakistan once fostered are now creating blowback that threatens regional stability.

  
  

One moment from our conversation particularly stuck with me. Irina noted:

"The leaked 28-point peace plan... underscores that the threat is maybe as much more political than it's actually military... It was an effort to send out a message that Trump can still be useful to put pressure on Ukraine."

Irina has a remarkable ability to see through the noise and explain what's really driving these global power shifts.

If you want to understand the game behind the game, watch our full conversation:

Let me know what you think,

Ajay

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Full Conversation Transcript (Unedited — Shared Exactly as It Happened)

Transcript:

(00:08) [Music] [Music] Welcome to this episode of the world according to Ireina Shukerman. Our very special series on global politics on the KJ masterclass live. Ireina Shukerman is a US-based national security and human rights lawyer as well as a renowned geopolitical analyst.

(00:39) Her writings and commentary have appeared in diverse US and international media and have been translated to over a dozen languages every fortnight in the world. According to Ireina Shukerman, we traverse the geopolitical landscape and delve into pressing international issues and gain insight from Ireina's expert perspective. Welcome to the show once again. Aya, thank you. Always glad to be here. You're welcome.

(01:04) Welcome to the show once again. Several big topics again today, Ireina. And and so, but first, let's take up this Ukraine issue scandal there and a lot of, you know, and amidst all these things, a new peace formula seems to have come up this time 28 point formula about Ukraine, but discussions going on between the US and Russia.

(01:26) help us understand what's going on in that part of the world towards the worst or towards getting better. ah both in some ways everything is both you know it's funny um the news tends to focus on on um on one angle or the other but at the same time it's usually um everything is happening simultaneously and much will depend um on um on on on the implementation on execution on on on leadership.

(02:22) Sorry. Wait, I I actually don't think I can hear you. Can you hear me? Yes, I can. I can hear I didn't know. Can you can you just repeat the last part because I feel like it froze and cut out. Okay. Okay. First part is the corruption scandal in Ukraine. you know what's happening in that and a lot of you know question marks around the government itself the president itself and and a lot of things and al along with this at the same time a new 28 point formula seems to be coming up between Russia and Ukraine and and US but it does not

(03:00) involve uh Ukraine only Ukraine will be impacted by it how do you see this whole thing panning out uh So, so there's two things going on simultaneous. So, one is internal, you know, on the one hand, the fact that at such high level you have so much graft related to energy companies, related to ministers and insiders close to the president.

(03:28) Of course, it raises public outrage. It raises outrage of investors and backers. At the same time, it's a sign of accountability because let's face it, 10 years ago, all of these people would have not only remained in place rather than being forced to resign and investigated um but they would have um um continued making money and continued uh you know being corrupted even higher level than they are now.

(04:01) Um essentially um based on what I understand the level of corruption and the level of um essentially the level of money being made from from these sensitive um uh situations has been cut by half from what it was um in previous years. It's still still not nearly enough. It's still horrifying. It's disappointing.

(04:30) Uh and it shows that how difficult it it is to actually root out corruption once it becomes part of your political culture. It becomes something so um entrenched in the system that if you're not corrupt, you literally cannot uh function. Uh so uh you literally cannot get anything done and you literally can't make money.

(04:54) Of course, the fact that people um in many former Soviet countries are going into politics specifically to make money rather than making money and then using their money to try to uh do some public good. Um you know that that's a completely different system from the western world. It's particularly tragic that this reckoning coming is coming at the time of a devastating war.

(05:20) Um when you would think that public conscience um uh that that that the war effort would make it you know would put aside these personal obsessions about wealth accumulation and um power to focus on uh to focus on the common goal of uh winning the war. The thing is, I'm not entirely sure that even these corrupt officials don't think that that, you know, it's not that they not don't necessarily care about the war.

(05:50) It's that they are so used um to functioning within this ecosystem that they may not even know how to act in any way that's different. There is a lot of internal peer pressure to conform. At the same time, however, it's very clear that whatever these uh financial shenanigans are, horrible as they may be, uh the real threat is still uh very much external.

(06:27) And the 28 point peace plan that was leaked out recently um underscores the that that the threat maybe as much much more political than it's actually military. Uh because let's face it, Russia cannot really make serious progress without political backing and assistance from the international community and especially the US.

(06:51) Sure, they're making incremental territorial uh gains where um whereas Ukraine uh is suffering from um personnel shortages, but now the progress is uh minimal compared to the losses Russia is suffering and economically the US sanctions on some of its largest uh companies, albeit with various exemptions and exceptions and um partial enforcements. They're still making an impact. They're still uh proving problematic.

(07:26) And uh Ukraine's strikes on energy and military infrastructure inside Russia are also uh setting setting the war pace back substantially. So what does that mean? It means that Russia needed some sort of a political trick to divert attention from its own um dismal situation and also to gain leverage over Ukraine if only tactical and temporary.

(07:58) The plan, I think, is more a publicity stunt to to to cause US to put pressure on Ukraine than anything than a serious effort to stop Ukraine. Because at the end of the day, Russia understands that most of the Europe and even the US are too invested to completely abandon uh the situation, especially even as Russia continues expanding the nature of its threat to Western countries with various acts of sabotage.

(08:26) the remarkably um effective um sabotage of the railway in Poland, the worst such attack since World War II. The continued attacks on the underwater sea cables um in Europe, including a recent laser attack by a Russian spy ship on the British forces, which could literally be considered an act of war.

(08:52) numerous smaller incidents, continued backing of political candidates um all over the west. All of these things add up and all of these things are not winning Russia any popularity in many of the governing factions. So Russia needed something that would at least even out the playing field from a political perception perspective.

(09:18) especially it was growing concerned that the um Republican view of Ukraine and Zilinski was starting to shift um in recent months and the public support for Putin never really very serious in the US to begin with was dropping even further. Absolutely. So their appeal was an audience of one. it was Donald Trump. It was not an effort to shift public opinion.

(09:52) It was an effort to send out a message that Trump can still be useful to put pressure on Ukraine. Um, it used Vitkov who has business interest in Russia and who was willing to do anything his friends asked him in terms of favors to leak a plan that was bound to be rejected rejected by Ukraine. It also insinuated in the minds of the extremely naive Trump officials that trying to leverage Ukraine with the threat of pulling intel and weapons would, you know, and giving them stringent deadlines would back Ukraine into a corner and help Trump gain yet another peace deal to add to his Nobel Prize um

(10:33) nomination aspirations. Clearly they were um wrong. First of all, Ukraine cannot lose um cannot afford to lo to to to fulfill the conditions that include um cutting out a large chunk of its army which is already suffering as I said from personnel stoages. It cannot give up weapons.

(10:57) It cannot simply admit uh defeat and surrender to please Trump or Putin. And quite frankly, Ukraine is not nearly as dependent on US weather in terms of intelligence or weaponry as it was in the beginning of the war. So the the leverage is not what these people thought it was. I think I thought the idea that Ukraine and Russian would make peace by the end of the week, which is an argument some White House officials were pushing to to the media, was absurd on its face.

(11:30) But I do still think that even the threats of these sanctions and lack of support can be damaging psychologically uh not only for Ukraine but also embolden pro-Russian political networks elsewhere. So this is you know this is an information attack more than it's actually a real serious effort to put an end um to Ukraine's aspirations for independence in any meaningful way.

(12:01) I think it was just designed to cause disruptions and to help the desperate Russian networks. Right. So does it look like this 28 point peace formula is only for information or is it you know is there a truth into all these things because it looks like you know as if Putin has dictated it and Trump seems the US seems to have agreed to it and and if it is true by any means then it looks like why does the US why does President Trump have to listen to Putin so much? Well, there's a couple of things.

(12:37) First, as you pointed out, this document was filled with Russianisms, essentially phrases that would not be used by a native Russian speaker, which means that Vitkov, Jared Kushner, and whoever else was involved in this effort, didn't even do a cursory job of editing the document. They just simply passed it on perhaps as a favor, as a business favor to their partners.

(13:02) Uh, Mitrif is not an official. He is literally a businessman who nevertheless takes part in negotiations. Meanwhile, foreign minister Lavrov has been gone from the major appearances for a while now. Allegedly, he's been sidelines after Putin's displeasure over the canceled Budapest uh summit with Trump. Uh so what we are seeing is clearly the Trump team did not put much thought into this document.

(13:35) Moreover, there's conflicting information coming out about the nature of this document with some sources claiming that this was only an initial draft and has not gotten very far in terms of review and approval and it was leaked prematurely at a very early stage. While others claim that the plan is exactly uh to be applied exactly as is which is why the US is now pressuring Ukraine over uh moving forward even as you know so many people are claiming that this was not for public viewing and it was an early draft and would have been revised somewhere along the way.

(14:06) Uh the the the point to note however is that regardless of what stage the draft was actually in, Ukraine was never consulted. It was never part of the negotiation. So the appearance is that US is once again switching positions, siding with Putin and trying to impose a solution on Ukraine without considering its sovereignty concerns simply as a bullying way of trying to get a to um uh ran through a deal for the sake of uh Trump and Trump too has once again switched to a familiar refrain about how Zilinski allegedly doesn't have the cards, you know, something that's been proven wrong and admitted to be wrong by

(14:51) Trump himself in recent uh months and by claiming that Zilinski is somehow the coding of the peace process and if not for him, you know, the situation would have stabilized a long time ago. Again, not true given that Putin literally continued attacking civilians in Ukraine during the last attempt at uh multilateral negotiations.

(15:16) So we are seeing uh once again Trump fall into the same trap. Kushner and Mitkov clearly having actionable conflicts of interest between their business um priorities and the uh geopolitical uh nature of their um meddling in this uh situation. Um so uh it should not be seen as a real and serious peace ne initiative but rather as a strategy to disrupt and divert the current trajectory.

(15:54) Absolutely. Absolutely. Now let's move on from one crisis to another. this time the the Middle East crisis and looks like you know uh President Trump and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and they are to consider UN resolution with a part towards Palestinian uh uh state. How does this all look like? Does it look like that it will happen and peace will finally prevail that there will be reconstruction in Gaza Gaza without disarming Hamas? Well, the the fact that that the UN Security Council accepted this plan uh without any serious changes

(16:33) even as Russia and China had abstained in indicates that there is a level of international support for this formulation. Um and many parties for for various reasons find this current structure useful for whatever the purpose is. But in terms of which grants it some level of international legitimacy if this is something that is a high priority for some.

(16:58) However, in terms of actual implementation um this is extremely dubious and it's funny because Trump seems to be applying the same outdated formula to the Russia Ukraine process. Essentially, uh, Trump is basically giving up on disarming and forcing out Hamas and claims he will move on directly to reconstruction in the areas currently under Israel's control, which is assuming that Israel will continue to control those territories for the foreseeable future.

(17:30) That said, the moment Israel withdraws, and they will likely withdraw because uh the Israeli society does not wish to continue operating in Gaza indefinitely. And this is what had caused them to leave to begin with. It's a high risk of continuous presence, high cost both financially and militarily. And it also is terrible from a publicity perspective because uh the territory is never neither annexed according to international law nor um separated entirely.

(18:06) So um there is Israel is kind of stuck with it. So in the event Israel does eventually withdraw um if Hamas remains in power, they will immediately move back to consolidate the control over the territory likely leading to the destruction of the infrastructure, the loss of investments and generally completely um wasted effort.

(18:34) And this is the possibility that we're currently facing if the administration really decides to continue operating in a unresolved conflict zone and start rebuilding in areas that are likely to be destroyed almost immediately the moment the status quo is challenged. And that is likely to happen sooner rather than later because Hamas is reconolidating its power not just in Gaza.

(18:59) They're growing their presence in the West Bank where Iran continues to supply them with weapons. And recently Europe dismantled Hamas cells in Germany and um Austria uh which should come to surprise of no one who's been following these events. Hamas in the p in the recent couple of years um has uh threatened multiple times to implement the strategy of building their networks in globalizing their operations internationally. The fact that they followed through should come as no surprise.

(19:34) Some of those networks were probably in place for a very long time even preceding the October 7th attacks. So what we are seeing is that the plan in theory is perfectly fine and acceptable to many stakeholders in the region. In terms of actual enforcement, there is no way to actually do it.

(19:57) There are no takers um for the uh for the securityization stabilization force. Uh there are too many unresolved issues that will not be easy to resolve. All of this is perhaps a political win for the US. But in terms of resolving the conflict, it so far has no teeth to actually get that done. Absolutely. Absolutely.

(20:21) We'll have to see how much this happens and how far peace uh peace actually becomes a reality in that part of the region. Moving on from this, you know, MBS is uh was in Washington and then there was the Saudi investment forum and Trump considers sale of 48 F-35 to Riyad. help us understand what was this whole visit about and how does it look like? Do you think this will wean away Saudi Arabia from Russia because they have become quite thin in descendants? H well funny you mentioned that because uh quite frankly the the word Russia never appeared in any of the headlines concerning this and yet in the

(21:01) background it very much uh part was part of the picture. However, the more immediate approximate cause uh for this visit was Carter getting um a huge defense deal and being elevated to a major nonATO status which um the Saudis felt threatened by and also slighted by. Um you know um the initial idea of pushing for a full defense treat with the the United States was actually is not new.

(21:35) Um, I wrote something about that in 2019 during Trump's first term. For a variety of reasons, it was never pushed and followed through at the time. But after Qatar got this uh huge deal, it suddenly uh be was seen as a priority in Riyad and the decision was made to make to take drastic action to move it forward.

(21:59) Um now, uh Trump has been in talks with the Saudis for the past weeks regarding the F-35s, regarding defense deal, and for months since his last visit to Saudi, he he's been in talk about civil um nuclear civilian nuclear program. Um, as far as it is known, US ultimately agreed to some components of that program, but where that actually goes in terms of long-term is still unclear.

(22:25) Many of the details of these talks have not emerged. On paper, Saudi came away with a lot in exchange for relatively little. They got a the approval for AI chips they needed. They got some sort of a security commitment from the US. unclear whether that commitment is real. But then again, it's also not clear whether cutters whether Trump's commitment to cut to defensive cutter is is something real. Until this um is actually tested, we will not know.

(22:56) Trump had agreed to sell 123 and actually made that announcement before the crown princess visit which indicates that most likely uh his his motiv motivation to kind of make Saudi part of the F-35 program um uh get a lot of money out of selling 48 very expensive airplanes each costing billions um uh and of course consolidating the security infrastructure in uh in the Middle East bringing uh regional security integration closer uh since Israel is also part of the same uh program.

(23:38) All of that seemed like a no-brainer from Trump's perspective. Now, the reality on the is actually much more complicated. I'm not sure that Saudis fully understand it or whether they're selling it uh to their own domestic audiences in a way that is actually whether they're managing the expectations. The reality is the review process required for such an undertaking is likely to be longer rather than shorter.

(24:12) uh Congress is likely to weigh the Israel's concerns about uh losing the qualitative edge because uh these are not just the standard model basic F35s. They're going to be equipped with similar advanced features as what Israel's Israel has and Israel has only you know a very small number I think only one such plane highly effective uh high highly effectively updated by Israel's own systems but nevertheless compared to 48 planes that Saudis are ordering which admittedly will not be ready for quite a few years um you know is it's a in if push comes to shove and in the event of

(24:54) a confrontation Israel will certainly be in an uneasy position. Um, now many people don't believe that Saudi Arabia is a real threat to Israel or that Israel would even in the event of a hostile uh government attitude would present a military priority for Saudis who are far more concerned about dealing with the Houthis internal problems or for that matter Iran potentially getting out of hand.

(25:28) But um the reality is you don't buy that number of planes unless you want to project power and uh of course some of it is related to Iran and Qatar but also given the fact that Qatar is part of the GCC and then Iran has normalized relations with Saudi Arabia for the immediate um uh future these relations are are stable. intolerable and unlikely to uh to to engage in direct conflict for the time being with Israel.

(26:07) However, given that there's not only uh no diplomatic relationship but no any official non-aggression pact of the sort that um Syria sort of had under Bashar alasides um it's entirely possible that um in the event of something going potentially wrong it's possible. You can't rule out that possibility even if it's very unlikely at this particular moment in time.

(26:34) That's that's for that reason Congress is likely to review this sale vigorously. It is possible that they will place restrictions and exercise tight oversight over its use by uh Saudis and meanwhile Qatar 2 has tried to buy F-35s from the United States. It's going to be a process. they're building up to it and participating in a US base and bringing their own uh planes to and building a separate facility is part of that uh process of trying to get to the F-35s in a way that makes it almost impossible to refuse.

(27:08) The Saudis did not follow the same path. instead of um trying to kind of slowly build public acceptance through incremental steps um and then buying a small number of um F-35s just as a symbolic gesture. They try to essentially overwhelm their potential competitors by going for the jagular right away.

(27:32) How that will actually work out in the end remains to be seen. For now, the Saudis are celebrating it as a win. Um, in terms of technical details, a lot of the sales being announced, the supposedly nearly trillion dollar AI and other deals, the details are unknown. From what I've seen in the days leading up to MBS's visit, it's become obvious to me that many of those deals um things that have already been in the talks for months, while others are the same deals that had been allegedly s signed during Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia and recycled since his first term. So, how much of this is

(28:12) real? How much of it is to make Trump um give Trump something to crow about in public about his deal making abilities remains to be seen with time. But for now, if I were Saudis and Emiratis, I would be careful with overengaging with the US, especially on the AI side because um we are seeing that some of that bubble held by a few large air companies is beginning to burst. That's not to say that AI itself um is a bubble.

(28:46) It's a huge area filled with un uh unfulfilled potential. But when it comes to a few large first movers, while they have had a tactical advantage, they also have made a fair um number of mistakes, which makes it highly likely that they'll blow uh blow up on itself and will not survive to see the second and third stage phases of the process of AI um being built and integrated into everyday processes.

(29:18) For that reason, you know, if you if if the Saudis are seriously counting on deals with all these uh companies, they should consider diversifying not only with non US companies but with smaller and middlesized uh businesses which are more likely to succeed in the long run having learned from the mistakes of their um of the found the founding fathers in this field.

(29:47) Um, however, something is telling me that Saudis are unlikely to move in this slower but wiser direction. They are probably going to try to move in with the biggest um current actors and with the biggest names quickly because they they like a quick diplomatic win. And what this is why well on paper they look like they're walking away with a huge win and getting everything they wanted in exchange for no serious conditions whatsoever not even a commitment to Abraham Accords of course um in practice all of this will really defend on technical details on political will on implementation on wherewithal and

(30:31) patience and ability to implement technical agreements and actually deliver on all these commitments and use and deals that are signed. How much of that is will actually uh come to see the light of day? Um it still remains to be seen. Absolutely. Absolutely. Now let's move on to Venezuela where another you know uh conflict looks to be opening with Trump considering military options in Venezuela.

(31:03) What has Venezuela done? What does Trump want from Venezuela? Who is with Venezuela and who is with us on this? Let's face it, Venezuela has become a bad and dangerous actor in the Western Hemisphere. It is backed by Iran, Russia, and China. All of them aggressively um adversarial to the US, not just in word, but indeed.

(31:29) They've been roing up anti-American sentiment all over Latin America. They have been um use weaponizing cartels to smuggle deadly drugs like fentinel into the US and to gain control of institutions and to essentially create um secondary economies all over the US. Um they have been uh grabbing infrastructure uh telecommunications, building up military presence alongside major terrorist or international terrorist organizations and uh and you and in conjunction with Maduro and Cuba utilizing intelligence networks to penetrate even friendly um Latin American countries uh spread anti-American sentiment establish

(32:17) espionage against US interests um and essentially acting as a as a very as a very adversarial or hostile um uh stakeholder in the region. Uh so there's no it's a it's a highly sanctioned regime that has abducted people and used them for leverage. It has engaged with asserted terrorists from abroad as well.

(32:43) Uh it's troubling for the region and it's dangerous to US security and interest in the region. Um there's also a very active opposition movement headed by Maria Machado who won the Nobel Peace Prize this year. And so in the event the regime were to fall, there would be at least a viable opposition that has popular support that could peacefully transition and put an end to these troubles and with that start putting unravel in the presence of all these hostile networks in this part of the world. Um that said, I'm not

(33:19) entirely sure that Trump is seriously committed to this entire process. he may just be using these option considerations as a form of deterrence. Um he his recent statements to Congress were that uh US does not yet have a legal justification to conduct air strikes on on Venezuelan land.

(33:43) Uh there's been a lot of objects but so far none of them have materialized to a concrete um objective of displacing Maduro regime. Uh it may be that Trump is trying to gain leverage and is actually fine with keeping Maduro in place if Maduro cooperates on some specific issues that Trump is looking to achieve. For instance, um limiting Chinese presence um in those countries or cracking down on the cartels that are targeting the United States.

(34:18) If any of those things come to pass, Maduro may yet get to keep his position, which will be unfortunate to the Venezuelan people in the entire continent, but will suit Trump's transactional limited approach to security. Uh now, the official cause for escalation has been the combating the uh fentinel smuggling by boats. The fact of the matter is, however, the administration has not presented any conclusive evidence that all of these boats were actually um drug smugglers.

(34:55) Um and the argument that drug smuggling presents the same level of risk as terrorism and could be classified in the same way has not been legally tested yet. Of course, Trump has designated many of those cartels as um terrorist organizations, but so far um there hasn't been a legal precedent for acting against them in this way.

(35:22) And moreover, um once again he has yet to establish that each and every targeted boat has actually been uh uh part of the designated cartels as well as opposed to some cartels that have not been designated or just random gangs or small drug smugglers or even regular fishermen. In one astounding case, uh they were survivors of a strike and rather than being qu arrested and questioned, they were literally just deported somewhere else um to to their home countries.

(36:00) Uh which is almost an admission that these people were not necessarily high level players or engaged in something illegal, which raises a question of US liability if they did kill civilians. um even if they were action targeting drug dealers. All of this comes amidst the official defense um strategy we reorienting towards uh domestic affairs in Western Hemisphere as opposed to any other foreign um defense matters including even uh China that has been largely scrapped in favor of this de uh domestic focus and um it's basically seems to line up with Trump's America first and the uh vision of focusing on

(36:45) domestic affairs and staying out of international conflicts. But if so, this war on drugs or terrorism promises to be a long one, displacing Maduro regime alone may not suffice. The cartels could essentially um assassinate the next leader or uh penetrate her administration and hijack the policy.

(37:15) um and uh all of that uh may not be sufficient to put an end to networks that operate in other Latin American countries. Uh so what we seeing is a very uh strange uh phony war uh that may not result in a full-blown conflict or even air strikes or a coup. Um it may simply end up being rattling for its own sake with some limited action to satisfy domestic audiences. Absolutely.

(37:43) Absolutely. Now let's move on from that part of the world to my part of the world and in this part Pakistan has opened investigation into the Islamabad terror attack accused has accused India and India is investigating the car explosion as a terrorist ex incident and possibly linked to the Kashmir events and and the in another part Afghan Taliban has is to end trade relations with Pakistan.

(38:09) I thought they were coming on to some conclusion and some peace talks were going on and Iran it has ended it free pre visa-free regime with India. What does it all look like? Where do you think things are? Well, here's the thing. It looks it very much looks like um the terrorist attack in New Delhi may have been a retaliation for the perceived role in uh in India's role in Islamab but most likely um I very much doubt that uh Indian uh security services uh find effective use of their resources and time to attack potentially civilian targets in Islamabad just to cause

(38:55) problems. It's very likely that the Taliban or some other terrorist organization was responsible given their that they have been growing their military presence in Pakistan for some time and it's just a convenient way to shift blame to India which has started some political discussions about normalizing with it with the Taliban and um also uh the attack in New Delhi could be a retaliation um that is tied to this rhetoric simply to make a point. But it's also entirely possible that Pakistan is simply losing

(39:33) control of the plot. It's losing control of the very same organizations it fostered and they are now increasingly operating independently with still with semiofficial backing. But uh it may not be some some well thought out and long-term plan by uh by the ISI or the government. It could be some of the Pakistani assets simply either freelancing or attempting to cause limited chaos just as a way of detracting from Pakistan's internal troubles.

(40:11) Um all of that is very is a very likely scenario. Meanwhile, despite growing instability in Pakistan, it seems that Trump is betting on its military, it's seeking to turn Pakistan back into an asset of the United States, and he thinks he can have that relationship with the army chief uh who he thinks could uh help centralize control over the uh assorted and at times conflicting uh government and military factions and become, you Trump's man in um in in Pakistan.

(40:50) How I'm I'm skeptical that this uh that he's the sort of man that Trump can fully control. But I think at least temporarily Pakistan may find it advantageous to cooperate with the US just to get money, political support, um investments and uh so forth. Which leads us to another situation because this whole story goes back decades back to the cold war to the rise of the mjahedin, the ISI attempt to control the worst of the mujahedin against the Soviet Union less for the sake of the cold war and more for the sake of um uh simply coming out as a as a as part of the their internal um effort to

(41:34) consolidate power against India and um in favor of their own interests. Um now we are seeing that decades later these strategies are seriously getting out of hand because even Pakistan cannot fully control the Frankenstein's monster it has helped create and this this creation is now turning on its master in a very predictable chain of events.

(42:03) They seeing Pakistan government as corrupt and impure. They're seeing the Taliban in Afghanistan as a success story for a pure fundamentalist regime. All of that is leading to um to the fact that the Taliban feels it has leverage to not negotiate not put up with Pakistan's condition for ending the conflict and to push forward for more aggressive political and military demands or and continue limited action.

(42:36) in the meantime gaining territory, winning hearts and minds among some of the radical groups and essentially see looking to rebuild the caliphate with even Pakistan that would in you know for in the short run it may seem as potentially beneficial to India because it keeps Pakistan off balance keeps it away from meddling in India and trying to instigate terrorist attacks.

(43:06) In the long run, a weakened Pakistan that is semicontrolled by terrorist groups, non-state actors, is a very isn't actually a more dangerous turn of events than the current status quo, bad as it is. Um because these non-state actors will not uh respect borders. They will not uh be limited by specific occasional operations and they will not be listening to anyone's command.

(43:42) they will prioritize expanding and causing problems and they will in the end continue um into India with the same level of um commitment as Pakistan's backed terrorists but with a much more popularity u much more great potential with greater forces and a level of extremism that is surpasses um that of Pakistan um Pakistan's corrupt military What is going to if this happens it's going to be an even more dangerous turn of events and hopefully the Israel um this Indian government understands that playing these games and giving Taliban leverage even with a v Pakistan can backfire tremendously exactly as

(44:26) Pakistan has found out in the past. I think this is a there is a lesson to be learned from that uh development. Absolutely. Absolutely. It's a dangerous world out there and amidst all these things something good is that India US trade deal the update is that US has exempted some pawn goods from reciprocal tariffs how what does what should we understand something good is being talked about something good is happening do you think a solution will be reached soon I don't see major progress on you know overall framework but I do see Trump as adopting this position of taxing some

(45:08) products temporarily and then removing the tariffs um as a way of a simply raising taxes um and making tax money for whatever purpose he needs that money for. So it's a very tactical deal that has nothing to do with greater relations. It's just convenient and part of his strategy.

(45:32) The other issue is that he makes an economic situation worse and he's like an arsonist and a firefighter. He's fighting the fire the fires he start created. Clearly tariffs are causing major discomfort in economic discomfort in the US. Polls by Fox News which is very friendly to Trump indicate that even most Republican voters are seeing Trump's impact on economy as um negative and this may simply be a way of letting people blow off some steam not because he ceased to believe in terms of trade deficit but because he at least temporarily achieved some of his

(46:08) goals and now he is trying to balance it with managing the public outrage over taxation over inflation over uh the economy businesses not being able to sustain their trade. So this is sort of a long-term game he's playing. I don't expect that I think he finds these tactical moves as more useful than coming to a some sort of grand bargain which will require um long-term commitment.

(46:46) I think he prefers not to stay commitment and to you know pull these strings all the time to keep everyone of balance not just India but also domestic actors his own constituents and essentially giving them a little bit of leaving as a way of manipulating and level of support making people believe that it's not so bad not implementing all of the tariffs at the same time for too long a time but then reinstating them or taxing someone some something else as soon as he feels that the situation has grown too comfortable.

(47:21) Unfortunately, this sort of economic maneuvering benefits him much more than it benefits either the American people or India. But I also don't think that this is this style of operation is going to end anytime soon. Absolutely. Absolutely. With this it's a wrap on this very special edition of the world according to Arena Shukerman on the KG masterclass live. Thank you so much indeed for joining us. Thank you.

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